NFL Playoffs: Guarantees, Players to Watch and Predictions!

Matt Aaron fills you in on everything you need to know before the NFL postseason begins.

Who said the holidays are over? Bring out the snacks, hang the pigskin where the mistletoe was and dangle the jerseys from the mantle, because it is time to feel festive again! The NFL Playoffs begin this Saturday and it does not get much better than this for professional sports in America. In anticipation for kickoff, I have developed a bounteous amount of information that will get you ready for the postseason. The following information contains 4 playoff guarantees, a number of players to keep an eye on and the official 2010-2011 NFL Playoff predictions, including which team will elevate the coveted Lombardi Trophy.


Part 1: The Guarantees

Like the NFL, these guarantees are extremely quarterback heavy. There are many myths in football, such as defense wins championships and a stout run game is absolutely necessary. Obviously it is important to be solid in these areas, but teams with all sorts of identities have won the Super Bowl in recent years. On defense, the 3-4, Cover 2 and 4-3 schemes have all won it all last decade. Rushing attacks have been ranked near the top, middle and bottom of the league over the same span. The one constant that every team needs is a great quarterback. In fact, 10 of the previous 12 Super Bowl MVPs have been either a quarterback or wide receiver.


QB is the most important position in sports. In, football, there is not even a close second. A team must have an above average signal caller in order to win it all. You can immediately point to Trent Dilfer, but there are exceptions to every rule. There is also something that nearly every QB that played in the Super Bowl in the last 10 years has in common. All except 2 came into their Super Bowl run with prior postseason experience. Tom Brady is the only quarterback to win the Super Bowl in the last decade without previously playing in the playoffs. Let’s be honest here, players like the GQ, Gisele, clutch gene, 3 time SB winning poster boy for the NFL do not come around too often. The other player lost in his Super Bowl and that would be Jake Delhomme. I do not have any rhyme or reason for this exception, other than ESPN’s Chris Berman gave him a slick nickname based off the Banana Boat Song (and the NFC was fairly weak in 2003).

Since 2000, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, Brad Johnson, Rich Gannon, Donavan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, Peyton Manning, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning and Drew Brees have all played in at least one previous postseason game before reaching the championship.

The playoffs are a different beast. Experience cannot be taught and this year will not be any different. There are at least 2 teams, possibly 3, with a quarterback that has never felt the sensation and pressure of a NFL playoff game.

The Chicago Bears with Jay Cutler will not reach the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs with Matt Cassell will not reach the Super Bowl.
The Seattle Seahawks with Charlie Whinehearst will not reach the Super Bowl. (Lets be honest here, the Seahawks with Matt Hasselbeck or even Jesus Christ himself at quarterback will not reach the Super Bowl. By the way, comparisons to the 2008 Arizona Cardinals are absurd.)

GUARANTEE #1: Both quarterbacks represented in the Super Bowl will have prior postseason experience. (My apologies to Bears, Chiefs and possibly Seahawks fans)

To build off the many myths and/or statistics a lot of analysts like to bring up will get us to our next guarantee. What is the most important statistic in football? There is absolutely a correct answer to this question and there is only one answer. It is not time of possession, rushing yards, rushing attempts (a new one that a lot of analysts are gravitating to) or starting field position. With red zone efficiency being the second most important statistic, graze down a game’s box score until you reach the turnover row. It is by far the most important value in the NFL.

Take a look at the turnover margin of the last 6 Super Bowl winners in the playoffs

2004 Patriots: 11 forced compared to 1 giveaway. Margin of +10
2005 Steelers: 7 forced compared to 4 giveaways. Margin of +3
2006 Colts: 13 forced compared to 9 giveaways. Margin of +4
2007 Giants: 7 forced compared to 2 giveaways. Margin of +5
2008 Steelers: 8 forced compared to 2 giveaways. Margin of +6
2009 Saints: 8 forced compared to 1 giveaway. Margin of +7

In the 2010 regular season, here is where the 12 playoff teams rank in TO differential

1. New England Patriots +27
2. Pittsburgh Steelers +14
3. Atlanta Falcons +13
4. Philadelphia Eagles +12
T5. Green Bay Packers +10
T5. Kansas City Chiefs +10
T6. New York Jets +4
T6. Chicago Bears +4
T6. Baltimore Ravens +4
7. Indianapolis Colts -4
8. New Orleans Saints -5
9. Seattle Seahawks -9

This is the reason why the New Orleans Saints will not repeat. They avoided the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, but this is a much different team. With the lack of a threatening run game, Drew Brees was faced with many more 3rd and longs this year. Consequentially, his interceptions skyrocketed. Last year’s defense was opportunistic in every sense of the word, 2nd in the NFL with 39 takeaways. This year, only 23. Turning the ball over will prevent the Saints from marching back to the promise land.

The previous 6 Super Bowl winners averaged a turnover differential of +5.83. During those years, no winner has had a TO disparity less than +3. Moreover, the 12 playoff teams average a turnover differential, over the duration of the 2010 season, of +6.67. To be straightforward, great teams win the turnover battle and that leads to wins. This gets us to the second guarantee.

GUARANTEE #2: The Super Bowl Winner will have at least a turnover differential of +3 for the duration of the postseason.

Who would you rather have at quarterback in the playoffs, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger? Both fit their systems perfectly. Manning is regarded as an all-time great; Roethlisberger is not (yet). The media, message boards, etc. always bring up a Brady/Manning debate, but listen here, do not discredit Roethlisberger and what he has done in the playoffs thus far. He has an 8-2 record while Manning is .500 at 9-9. A myth is that Ben is simply carried by his defense. In reality, the Steelers defense has allowed 21.7 ppg in Roethlisberger’s 10 playoff games. The Colts defense has allowed 21.3 ppg in Manning’s 18 playoff games. 21 points is quite solid (and obviously the same), but not dominant by either team. It certainly proves that the Steelers defense have not carried Roethlisberger while the Colts defense have not waited for manning to carry them. Additionally, Roethlisberger averages 27 ppg on offense compared the Manning’s 23. The two time SB winner wins that battle by 4 points.

Many uninformed fans like to bring up Roethlisberger’s first SB performance at the age of 22. Did he play well? Hell no! But credit him for his performance in the 3 preceding playoff games. Actually, compare Roethlisberger’s 2005 playoff stat line with Manning’s Super Bowl run in 2007. It might surprise you.

Roethlisberger in 2005: 62% for 803 yards with 9 TDs (2 of those rushing) and 3 INTs
Manning in 2007: 63% for 1,034 yards with 4 TDs (1 of those rushing) and 7 INTs.

To be fair, let’s statistically compare both quarterbacks most recent Super Bowl run.

Roethlisberger in 2008 (3 games): 61% for 692 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT
Manning in 2009 (3 games): 68% for 956 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs

Manning played exceptional for the most part, but was playing from behind in his final 2 games. Roethlisberger ended Super Bowl 43 with one of the greatest drives in NFL history. Manning ended Super Bowl 44 with a pick 6.

In the playoffs, Roethlisberger simply looks better than Manning. The one game that is never talked about that sums up Ben’s play was in 2007, wild card matchup against the Jaguars. He threw 3 first half interceptions, enabling Jacksonville to head into halftime with a 21-7 lead. Steelers’ fans were crying for him to be benched. He comes out in the 2nd half and puts together a historic performance and actually gave the Steelers a 29-28 lead late in the 4th. His 2 touchdown passes in the second half and 3 touchdown leading drives in the 4th alone were more than impressive. Unfortunately for him, David Garrard made Tyrone Carter and James Harrison look silly scrambling for a huge gain on 3rd down with minimal time remaining. The Jags eventually defeated the Steelers on a game winning field goal. This was the game that I thought people would realize what this kid is made of. The following year he orchestrates the previously mentioned Super Bowl drive (putting his first SB behind him) and won his 2nd ring. His maturity is finally on the level as his play and that is not a good sign for the other 5 AFC playoff teams.

There is no denying that Manning is great. His AFC Championship performances against the Jets last year and against the Patriots in 2007 are Hall of Fame type stuff. With that being said, he has more struggles than success in the playoffs. He is only 3-3 in Wild Card games and has 9 interceptions in 6 career AFCC or Super Bowl games (also 3-3 in those 6 games). This year, he is playing with a depleted offensive unit and we will be taking his show on the road if he defeats the Jets. He’s had protection problems, idiot kickers and pick sixes in previous postseasons. The Colts have been playing for their playoff lives since they were 6-6 and that might help them heading into the postseason. Even with that, it does not add up to be a successful year for Manning in to the 2010-2011 playoffs. Looking at their previous history and current situations, here is your next guarantee.

GUARANTEE #3: Ben Roethlisberger will outperform Peyton Manning in the 2010-2011 NFL playoffs. Conclusion: With the impact that QBs have on their teams in this era of football, Ben will lead his team further than Peyton will lead his Colts, guaranteed!

The Patriots, Steelers, Falcons and Bears all earned a first round bye. Congratulations to at least one of those teams, because one of them will represent their conference in the Super Bowl. Notice that 3 of the 4 listed are the first 3 in turnover differential.
Last season we witnessed two 1 seeds face off for the first time since 1993. Yes, that was a rarity, but it did not stop an even longer streak. Since the current playoff format was implemented in 1990, a 1 or 2 seed (at least one) has reached the Super Bowl. In recent years we have watched a 3, 5 and 6 seed all win the Lombardi trophy, but they defeated a top seeded team.

When you look at the top seeds in this year’s bracket, it is not difficult to see why they earned their bye, especially with the Pats, Falcons and Steelers. All three teams have exceptional quarterback play, the ability to run the ball, do not turn the ball over and are well coached. Though this is not a inconceivable statement and it is not going to turn heads, it brings us to the next guarantee.

GUARANTEE #4: At least one top 2 seed will be playing in Dallas for a chance to raise the Lombardi trophy. (Double check your prediction sheet, if you filled one out and you do not have one of these four teams in the Super Bowl, you are wrong!)

Bonus Fact: 2 seeds have won the Super Bowl more than any other seed since the 12 team formatted was instituted in 1990.


Part 2: The players to watch

Thus far, I have stressed the importance of the quarterback position, but there will be some difference makers at other positions. In recent years, Tracy Porter, Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and Ty Law have cemented their names in playoff glory. Here are a few names and situations to watch for. The following players are crucial to their team’s success.

5. John Abraham: Before we get to the young kids, lets start with a strong veteran presence. Speaking of young kids, that is exactly what this Falcons team is, especially in terms of overall postseason experience. Most of this team played in its first playoff game last year in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Abraham was not a factor at all in that game and Kurt Warner took advantage. Explosive offenses such as the Eagles, Saints and Packers might bring their talents to the fast track that is the Georgia Dome. Abraham is capable of taking over a series which he late in week 16 against the Saints (obviously was not enough). Defensively, he might have to take over the greater part of the game. His 102.5 career sacks and 13 this year proves that he can do just that.

The Falcons run a 4-3 defense and the dynamic duo of Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham on the right side of that line might be the key to the dirty birds reaching big D in February.

4. LaMarr Woodley: Robert Horry was nicknamed Big Shot Bob for his playoff heroics in the NBA and it might be time to nickname Woodley, ‘Marr the big game star (it could stick). He has played in 4 playoff games… he has 2 sacks in all four games! Yes, 8 career playoff sacks already. This year, his production went down slightly. 50 tackles, 9.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. Not a bad year by any means, but LaMarr was quieter than OJ Simpson in a confession booth in a few big games this year. Against the Saints, Patriots and Jets, Woodley was completely shut down. Could a miraculous return of Aaron Smith all but guarantee more postseason dominance from the outside linebacker? Possibly, but understand this...the combination of Woodley and James Harrison and the pressure they get (or lack there of) is THE most important defensive factor for the Steelers. As great as he is, Troy Polamalu is a distant second.

3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Who needs a lawyer when you can have the entire lawfirm? This kid has been absolute money for the Patriots this year. He has 329 career carries (the majority of them this season) and he has zero career fumbles. This season he added 12 touchdowns to go with the 0 fumbles, which is not a bad ratio. He is a bruising back that always falls forward. After an inconsistent start to the season, Green-Ellis has averaged at least 4 yards a carry the last 8 games of the season. Around half way through the season, the Patriots abundant of tight ends started owning the middle of the field. It is no fluke that the middle of the field opened up once G-E found his stride. Tom Brady gets all the recognition, which the soon to be MVP deserves, but a bruising back might be the main reason why Terrific Tommy has not slipped on a Super Bowl ring in six years.

The Baltimore Ravens could possibly be the Pats first playoff matchup, a team that manhandled them last season in the playoffs. This season, the Pats defeated the Ravens in overtime despite B-E only rushing for 20 yards (Woodhead had 63 yards on 11 carries). More importantly, Brady had 5 interceptions combined in those two matchups. With weather prone to be factor and if this turns out to be the 2nd round battle, keep an eye on BenJarvus Green-Ellis. His ability to run on that stout defense early in the first half and his staying power late in the game will determine who wins this possible matchup.

2. LeSean McCoy: Philadelphia Eagles headlines this year have started and finished with Mike Vick. Every once in awhile you’ll get a front page display of Desean Jackson dancing and prancing. Talk about a quiet season for McCoy who simply put up over 1600 yards from scrimmage, over 1,000 on the ground while averaging a hefty 5.2 yards per pop. In the 4 loses in which McCoy played in (sat week 17 with nothing to play for), the former Pitt running back averaged 3.9 yards per carry, a slim 39.2 yards per game and 1 lonely rushing touchdown. He was a factor in the passing game in those loses, catching at least 4 passes in each of those games. They do not need him to be a factor in the passing game though. He needs to carry the rock and establish the run. McCoy will get his screen passes and the Eagles run the screen better than any other team in the league, but he needs to shrink the defensive box to open up room for Action Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.

Bonus for the Bird fans!

2a. Asante Samuel: 7 Interceptions and 4 touchdowns in 12 postseason games. Hello video game stats! Samuel’s buoyancy and risk taking has paid off (and got him paid) in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings run a silky smooth and perfectly timed double move together. The deep route is implanted in the Packers playbook. Will Asante bite? Or will he make another big pick in a big game? Either way, keep an eye on number 22.

1. Reggie Bush: This one is pretty simple. Chris Ivory is on the injured reserve and Pierre Thomas will be limited, if effective at all. Quarterback Drew Brees’ turnover numbers were ridiculously high and the lack of a dependable backfield was one reason why. Bush looked healthy against the Buccaneers in week 17 and he usually performs well in playoff games. The prevalent question still hovers around Bush. No, it’s not whether or not Kim still loves him (she does), but can he carry the ball 20-25 times? His season high in carries is 9

More importantly than carrying the ball 25 times, Bush will have to be a factor in the slot, catching the ball out of the backfield and in the punt return game. Rookie stud Jimmy Graham was hurt in week 17 as well; so can Reggie be Brees’ security blanket? There will be will a lot of shootouts in the NFC playoffs this year and if the Saints want to make a serious run, Bush will have to lead the NFL in total yards.

Bonus for Saints fans!
1a. Somebody on defense! Last year Tracy Porter elevated his team with 2 legendary interceptions on 2 legendary quarterbacks. During the 2009 season, Darren Sharper was ball hawking like he was 25 again. This year, the team has 8 interceptions total with Porter not building off his postseason success and only compiling 1. Jonathan Vilma provides the stability, leadership and grit that every defense needs, but will not provide the splash play. Roman Harper could be that guy. The safety has 3 sacks, 6 FF and an interception this year. He is athletic and will need all that athleticism to counter the fast and strong NFC offenses.


Part 2 Continued: Bonus for everyone!

To be direct, the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs will not make the Super Bowl. They are not experienced enough and do not have the talent compared to the other 10 teams. It is not a formula for success. BUT (and it’s a big but… obviously) anything can happen in the National Football League. If either of these teams somehow upset their way to Dallas, it will be up to a key, skill position star to put together a historic postseason.

Kansas City’s fate falls on the shoulders of Jamaal Charles. The 24 year old back had a blockbuster 6.4 yards per carry this year. He added nearly 500 receiving yards and his explosiveness is MVP material. Fantasy owners of Charles were frustrated at his lack of carries despite his production (still had 1,467 yards). Well Chiefs fans might be pleased that head coach Todd Haley limited his carries to 230. The former Longhorn, who has a career ypc average of 6.0, should be fresh to have 30-35 touches a game.

Baltimore comes to town this Sunday and their defense is still as good as advertised. Up front, Haloti Ngata is the best defensive tackle in the game. His strength will negate the power run game that Thomas Jones employs. As far as Matt Cassel, Ed Reed is intercepting everything. Despite how athletic Dwayne Bowe is, his unpredictability is worrisome as his readiness for the big stage. Mr. Charles’ talents are ready for the big stage.

The Seahawk’s fate also falls on a running back. He is a back that had high expectations entering this season, but did not quite live up to the hype. If Seattle wants to make one of the most improbable runs in sports history, Justin Forsett will have to introduce himself to America. Marshawn Lynch has received the bulk of the carries, but his 3.6 yards per carry will not control the clock enough for the Seahawks to stand a chance. Forsett is a better all around back in terms of running inside and out. He also brings an element of catching the ball out of the backfield. Quarterback questions loom over Pete Carroll’s squad and the defense has given up catastrophic point totals this season, including over 38 four different times. Unless Leon Washington returns 5 kicks during this postseason, Forsett will have to be magnificent.


Part 3: Predictions

WILD CARD ROUND

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: The reason Coach Rex Ryan finds this “personal” is not because Peyton Manning touched his wife’s feet, it is because Ryan’s defenses have not been able to beat Manning in Baltimore or in New York. Mark Sanchez is banged up and will not be 100%. The Jets running game will not be factor. In fact the Colts rush defense allowed 66 yards per game in their final 4 contests. The Colts rush defense has not clicked like this since their Super Bowl run in 2007. Not a high scoring game, but Colts win at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs: Ray Rice will get the ball early and often and similar to last year’s wild card game against the Patriots, he can dominant it. Baltimore’s defense will get to Matt Cassel and Ed Reed will be licking his chops in the secondary. Do not ignore the fact that the Chiefs offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss accepted the Florida Gators OC position. Cassel did not look the same last week. There is no question that a QB and his coordinator’s relationship needs to be completely healthy and trusting. That is not the case right now. The Ravens’ experience will triumph in Arrowhead.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks: Okay, the Seahawks are at home and the 12th man is intense. Alright, they are keeping their starter quiet in order to force the Saints to prepare for both. Let’s see, the Hawks in essence started their playoffs last week and are in playoff mode. And lastly, absolutely none of that will matter in this contest. Drew Brees will be too much for a defense that is the worst in the playoffs and it’s not even close. They’re not playing Sam Bradford this week.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles: What a wild card game this will be and it will be a shootout. Mike Vick’s health will be something to keep an eye on. If he is not 100%, Packers have the advantage. Somebody has to step up on the Green Bay defense and do not forget the ghastly performance they put forward against Kurt Warner last year. Will Clay Matthews get to Vick? It is quite possible and he has to be the one to lead this defense. The X factor is LeSean McCoy and the lack of a running game the Pack will have. The most exhilarating playoff game of the 2010-2011 season might just take place during Wild Card weekend. Eagles win what will be a great game

DIVISONAL ROUND

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The home team might be the healthiest they have been since early in the season. Rashard Mendenhall has looked fresh in recent weeks and Coach Mike Tomlin has limited his carries the last quarter of the season. Manning does not forget the “Protection problems’ his offensive line had in 2005 and the Steelers front 7 is even better in 2010. Indianapolis simply has too many injuries at their skill positions. The backfield has been so slim for the Colts this year that they brought in Edgerrin James’ cousin and Dominic Rhodes (who last I heard was working at Marvin Harrison’s sport’s bar). Pittsburgh at home is an easy pick.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Many media outlets including the mothership have called the Ravens the Pats’ kryptonite. That simply is not true. Yes, Baltimore destroyed the Pats in the playoffs last year, but this year will be different. Nobody is talking about the horrific playoff performances Joe Flacco has put together in his young career. In 5 career playoff games, the 6 foot 6 QB has 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions. That is actually the good news. On top of that, he is only completing 47% of his passes, 132 yards per game and a passer rating of 46.5. Unfortunately for the Ravens this year, Flacco needs to outperform Brady which is as unlikely as you winning the Mega-Million Lottery drawing.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: This is going to be the most intriguing matchup of the playoffs. These are two teams that know each other inside and out. The most recent matchup featured a game that went down the wire and Brees, as he tends to do, drove the ball 80 yards in a blink of an eye. This game will be different. Michael Turner was Dr. Jackal and Mr. Hyde against the Saints in their two games. If he carries the ball 30 times, effectively, such as he did in September, the Falcons will win at home. Similar to the Colts, injuries will finally catch up to the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears: Mike Vick vs. Julius Peppers, it does not get much better than that. Jay Cutler, a confident (borderline cocky) quarterback, will be humbled at home. The Eagles will be able to force 2-3 turnovers which will be enough to win on the road. Devin Hester and Desean Jackson should combine for 0 punt return yards, because each punt should sail 15 yards out of bounds. The exceptional Mike Vick story will create a new chapter as the Eagles fly to the NFC Championship game.

CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots: Tom Brady has not thrown an interception since week 6. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never fumbled in his career. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers be able to force the Pats to make mistakes in Foxboro? It certainly is not implausible to think so with playmakers such as Harrison, Woodley, Timmons and Polamalu headlining the defense. Do not underestimate the physicality of the Pats defense, because they are just as mean and tough as the Steelers. Vince Wilfork (Sports Illustrated’s cover story this week) is an elite defensive force and allows Jared Mayo to eat up opposing team’s backfields. Unlike previous meetings, this game will be close. We all know that Tom Brady is Michael Jordan in terms of playoff performances, but Ben Roethlisberger might be ready to take that claim away from him. Steelers, behind Roethlisberger and his basketful of playmakers defeat the New England Patriots in a high scoring affair, even in blistering cold Foxboro.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Seriously, is this is a fairytale? Mike Vick back in Atlanta for a chance to play for the Lombardi Trophy? This is not wishful thinking, these are the two best teams in the NFC and they will play each other. Vick has finally mastered the QB position and the comparisons to Steve Young are warranted and down right accurate. The Falcons do not have the defensive speed, specifically on the line to contain Mike. Atlanta at home (despite Matt Ryan’s impressive home record) will actually hurt them, because the Eagles running indoors plays right into their team strengths. Eagles win this game relatively easy.

SUPER BOWL

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Somebody call Ed Rendell and have him make sure no wusses are watching the all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. Dick LeBeau will have the difficult task of containing Vick, but he has the talent to work with. Trent Cole will give Ben Roethlisberger headaches, but will he be able to bring the 260 pound QB down? The Eagles have 4 different players who have at least 3 interceptions this year and will give the Steelers offense a lot of different looks. This game is simple. With the dynamics that Vick brings to the table, how healthy will Troy Polamalu be? The freedom he is given will allow him to play in the box and shadow him. The second most important factor will be who has a bigger impact, Desean Jackson or Mike Wallace? Wallace will see more man defense and he will have the opportunities to put SB MVP numbers up. Steelers win in a close matchup and elevate their unprecedented 7th Lombardi Trophy.

I will conclude with this. I anticipate the playoffs starting with great enthusiasm and a lot of confidence in my guarantees and predictions. I hope you enjoyed reading this and the ultimate goal was to make you, the reader, critically think and help you develop your own guarantees and predictions. I emphasize my confidence, but there is no denying that many, if not all of them, could be wrong. If that is the case, well I will keep my head up high, because, well, Peter King still has his job! Until next time, Happy NFL Playoffs!

Steelers vs Raiders: The Good, Bad and Ugly.

Sorry ladies, this isn't Clint Eastwood, it's Matt Aaron breaking down the Steelers perfomance yesterday in a 35-3 victory of the Oakland Raiders.

The Good

• The Defense certainly redeemed itself from last week’s embarrassment at the hands of Tom Brady and company. Vintage Dick LeBeau game, in which he used the first 8 minutes or so of the game to feel out the Raiders offense and proceeded to make his Hall of Fame adjustments. It resulted in 6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions (technically it was 3, but I’ll get to that), held Darren McFadden to 14 rushing yards and smacked Jason Campbell all the way to the bench. Three components stuck out during this game on the defensive side of the ball.

1. Troy Polamalu played an exceptional game. Besides his interception, he was disrupting McFadden in the backfield and forcing Campbell to immediately check down. It was not talked about much in the Pittsburgh media, but Mr. Head and Shoulders has not played remarkably well the last few weeks. LeBeau gives Polamalu a lot of opportunities to improv from his safety position and this was the first game in the last month where it was once again was clicking for the All-Pro.
2. 
   The defensive line played without their starting ends and it did not matter. The Raiders came into this contest averaging over 450 yards of offense and 38 points during their 3 game winning streak, but the excellent rotation of Ziggy Hood, Nick Eason and Chris Hoke made that offense look elementary. This was the first time all season that the Raiders offense was held under 100 rushing yards for a game.
3. 
   In November and December of last season, James Farrior looked older than his defensive coordinator while on the field. He looked slow, hurt and probably could not chase down Hal Gill if he needed to. Yesterday, the 35 year old middle linebacker and 15 year veteran was again, on top of his game. He looks healthy and it makes the defense complete. He finished the day with 8 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack and 1 QB hurry. The defensive quarterback, playing next to an emerging star in Lawrence Timmons leads the most bloodcurdling linebacking core in the NFL.

• Who bet that Big Ben would finish the day with 6 less rushing yards than the whole Raiders team combined? Thought so. Roethlisberger orchestrated a beautiful game with his arm and his legs. He completed passes to 8 different receivers while on his way to 275 yards passing and 3 TDs. He also added a rushing touchdown in which he gave a Raiders’ defender an ‘okie doke’ making it appear that he was going to slide down or jog out of bounds before plunging into the end zone. Only negative was a play in which he missed Mike Wallace down the sideline after he blew past Michael Huff.

• That last sentence was an easy segway into Mike Wallace and his mindboggling speed. With all apologies to Chris Johnson, number 17 in the black and gold is the fastest player in the NFL. It literally looked like someone hit the fast forward button on the remote when he blistered by defenders for his 52 yard touchdown run. There is nothing more dangerous than a deep threat that is consistent on a week to week basis. He is quickly becoming an all around wide receiver. Who says Mike Wallace needs 60 minutes, because this kid can run goal line to goal line in 6 seconds.

• Antonio Brown again had an opportunity and Antonio Brown again seized it. Randle El should never have made this squad and barring injury or garbage time, he will not see the field again this year. 9.4 yards on punts and he had a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty. He also caught a pass for 21 yards on his lone chance in the passing game. (But I have enjoyed seeing 40 year old women who have 6 six children, wear their "El Ya" shirts again)

The Bad

• 14 penalties for 163 yards is unacceptable. We’ll get into the specifics of these calls in a little bit, but no matter what, that can not happen. On the bright side, that was the most penalty yards in a game by a team that won by at least 32 points in NFL history. Hooray!

• Rashard Mendenhall had the gears spinning early, but could not sustain it throughout the game. 23 carries for 56 yards is very pedestrian and sometimes his incredible patience hurts him at times. Yesterday, Mendenhall was too patient behind a patchwork offensive line.

The Ugly

• Injuries to the offensive line are almost becoming sickening for Mike Tomlin and company. Maurkice Pouncey, Chris Kemoeatu and Jonathan Scott forced constant juggling on the offensive line again. The positive out of these unfortunate injuries is that the line continued to play well while being shuffled on a play to play basis.

• Certain penalties must be addressed by the NFL. No reason to complain THAT much in a game in which the Steelers won by 32, but some were obviously nauseating. The phantom helmet to helmet on Ryan Clark, James Harrison’s roughing the passer that negated Ike Taylor’s pick 6 (He actually caught the ball!) and LaMarr Woodley’s love tap had the Steelers crowd barking at the refs. This game might cost this crew a chance to work a playoff game.

• Ben Roethlisberger's jaw

• Dan Dierdorf’s lame jokes every time Shane Lechler took a whiff of his smelling salt.
  

  
  

  Overall: If you are Mike Tomlin, there is not much to dwell on. All 3 facets of the game were on point and that does not happen with all the parity in today’s NFL.

Weekend Watch!

Filling you in on the can’t miss games of the weekend. Unless you honestly have something better to do.

Let’s start with the NFL, or as the big boys are calling it these days, the No Fun League.

Enjoy!

Oakland @ Pittsburgh – Black and Silver vs. Black and Yellow. Rap lyrics, or a game of  great magnitude this weekend?  If you selected C, all of the above, you are correct.  The last time the Steelers and Raiders played a meaningful game in November Marcus Allen was still playing for the black hole.  Oakland is 5-4, leading the AFC West and seems to be getting stronger each week, which isn’t peachy news if you are a Steelers fan because William Gay and his distressing secondary have allowed 272.6 passing yards per game since Oct. 17, sixth most in the league. And don’t forget Oakland waltzed into Pittsburgh last November and defeated the Steelers as heavy underdogs. Bruce Gradkowski won homecoming king and the Steelers were left without a date to the prom as the Raider defeat was the first of what was a 3 game losing streak at the wrong time for Pittsburgh (Kansas City and Cleveland followed), ultimately ensuing in Pittsburgh missing the playoffs. So who does this game mean more to you ask? The answer is the Steelers. Could you imagine the talks of déjà vu around the burgh’ if they were to fall?  This is a different Steelers team compared to last year. They’re resilient, led by their QB Ben Roethlisberger who will have an immense bounce-back game. And on the opposite side there’s no Kenny Stabler, or Bruce Gradkowski for that matter, but a historically inconsistent quarterback in Jason Campbell. Look for the Steelers to shut down Darren Mcfadden and Oakland’s rushing attack, thus resulting in Campbell and company struggling in the pass game.  And don’t forget the much anticipated regular season Steeler debut of Shaun Suisham. They won’t need him for much other then extra points.

-      -Take the Steelers. 21-10

New York Giants @ Philadelphia – Or should I say the Giants @ Michael Vick? (Stupid). Yeah I said it . . .Andy Reid has built the most dynamic, powerful, quick-strike offense that football has seen in a long time. Lesean Mccoy, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin, three individuals that can take it the distance on any play, surrounding MVP Candidate Michael Vick, how do you say that's not fair in code language? New York appeared to be the best team in the NFC until last week when they lost 33-20 to the fighting Jon Kitna’s. Eli Manning decided to illustrate once again why he will never be as reliable as his brother, and a Giants defense that came into the game ranked #1 in the league surrendered 430 yards to a rather helpless attack. Although Vick hasn’t defeated a top 15 NFL defense yet this season, how can you bet against this guy right now? Also remember the Eagles put up totals of 85 points and 765 yards in sweeping the season series from the G-men a season ago. All signs point to Philly as they take control of the NFC East.

-Eagles 30 Giants 20

Green Bay @ Minnesota - Hmm, I think I’ve seen this movie before. Brett Favre vs. his former foe again? Oh wait, that's Something About Mary. Listen up people, this game is no longer about Brett Favre. It’s about Aaron Rodgers. The current Packers QB will try and not do his best favre impression, and attempt to throw the ball to his own team.  I guess Brett has another excuse though if he happens to throw a few more interceptions. He threw to the guys in green for 17 years. Sidney Rice comes back, but can’t salvage this game, or the season for Minnesota. Take the Packers here silly, 19-16

Indianapolis @ New England- Wow. Get ready for some serious homoerotic comments from Phil Simms. Set your Tivo. More importantly, it's Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning!!!!!!!! But not really. This is the Colts vs. the Patriots. Not Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao, these men won't be hitting each other. My mother once told me football was a team game, and boy was she spot on. Right now the Patriots are looking more like a team, although Tom Brady has been as much of a one man army this season as Peyton Manning is every. Interesting storyline and subplot to follow . .this game will feature a different cast then we’re used to viewing. There will be no Dallas Clark or Austin Collie, but a Jacob Tamme and a Pierre Garcon. For New England, no Randy Moss or Kevin Faulk, but a Brandon Tate and a kid called Woodhead. Look for the role players to play a bigger role then you would originally think. Obviously though, there is a constant, and that is and has been Peyton Manning and Tom Brady who just happen to still be playing some of the most epic football of their career. To me, this is a coin toss. The Colts defense has struggled recently against the pass, and the patriots offense seems to finally have hit their moss-less stride. Take Tom Brady to land the knock out blow.

Patriots 30 Colts 26

UPSET SPECIAL:

49ERS OVER BUCCANEERS. 25 -20

Troy Smith has this team believing once again. He also hates Pirates.

This post is brought to you by: Mike Nicastro – who ironically finds he has a great deal of fun while watching the NFL.

Now for the league with the kids who do not get paid....at least for the most part.


By Ian Hanford

#9 Ohio State @ #20 Iowa-The Buckeyes walk in to Iowa City against the best three loss team in the nation.  Iowa averages over thirty points per game at home against conference opponents despite having the toughest home conference schedule in the Big Ten.  Ohio State needs to grab early momentum unlike last week against Penn State in order to keep pace for the conference lead.  Led by Adrian Clayborn and one of the best twelfth men in the nation, Iowa wins 21-17. 

      #7 Wisconsin @ Michigan- Coming off a Big Ten record tying 83 point performance against conference foe Indiana, Wisconsin looks to maintain the inside track in the conference race.  As electric as Denard Robinson is for Michigan, sadly he cannot improve the 93^rd ranked red zone touchdown defense.  Combine that with Wisconsin’s offense being the best in the nation at punching in touchdowns in the redzone, and Wisconsin wins going away 38-17. 


     #13 Arkansas @ #21 Mississippi State- Led by Ryan Mallett, the Razorbacks are third in the nation in pass offense and thirteenth in scoring offense.  Though both of these teams are out of SEC title contention, bowl position is still up for grabs.  Mississippi State looks to get the Vick Ballard led run game back on track after a tough loss to Bama.  Mallett is too much as Arkansas wins 31-14 

      #16 Virginia Tech @ #24 Miami- Virginia Tech can claim the ACC coastal division crown with a victory on Saturday.  Stephen Morris will make his third straight start for the Canes, who are coming off of two straight victories.  Tyrod Taylor shows young Morris what a veteran plays like and the Hokies win 27-14. 


      #8 Nebraska @ #19 Texas A&M-   In my upset special this week, Ryan Tannehill leads an Aggies team that has won four straight games for the first time since 2006.  The Cornhuskers are tenth in the nation in scoring defense and hold the inside edge to win the Big Twelve North.  Despite the staunch scoring defense of the Huskers, Tannehll continues to pace an offense averaging 312 yards through the air in its last four wins.  Aggies win 24-21.

Overrated and Underrated by Position, NFL Style

This blog post is brought to you by Matt Aaron, who underratedly makes up words.

The following post explains the most overrated and underrated players in the NFL at each position. Since offensive lineman rarely get credit as it is, I have skipped over them. For all you curious readers out there, my overrated offensive lineman is Matt Light and my underrated lineman is Joe Thomas who might be the best in the league already.

Quarterback position

Underrated: Josh Freeman

The 22 year old Kansas State QB has already cemented a reputation that he is a winner. He was victorious in his first career start in November last year against the Packers and has his team is in serious contention in 2010. Most impressive are the amount of come from behind wins this kid on his resume already. Strong arm, understands the game and decent legs when he needs them, equals a lot of legit comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger. I fully expect the Buccaneers to make the playoffs in 2010, out of a torturous NFC South division and Josh Freeman is the reason why.

Honorable Mention: Eli Manning. It’s difficult to call a guy, who is one of the highest paid players in the game, underrated, but Eli is never mentioned amongst the best. He is starting to look like his big brother pre-snap with his authoritative playcalling and he wins big games. He turns the ball over too much early in games, but tends to turn heads late in games. He steps it up when it matters.

Overrated: Tony Romo

This blog thing is fun already. I think I could develop a website on why Romo is vastly overrated. Some of the hate garnered towards Romo is unfair as he seems like a nice guy and some of it is unfair in this aspect. Romo performs so well in September through November that it makes his annual late season struggles magnify that much more. It’s all about the big games and big moments with blogster Matt Aaron and Romo simply struggles when the lights are brightest. He has a 16-15 record against the NFC East, included in those loses was a shellacking at the hands of the Eagles to close the 2008 season to prevent the Boys a playoff berth. Speaking of playoffs, Romo has been outperformed in three of his four playoff games by opposing team’s quarterbacks. Without even including the numbing fumble snap against the Seahawks, Romo’s statistics are not impressive whatsoever.

1-3 record 59% 208 yards per game and an 80.8 passer rating

If you look deeper into the games, Romo’s divisional round play is absolutely horrific as he is posting a 65.4 passer rating in 2 career games.

But he did date Carrie Underwood so maybe I am just bitter.

Honorable Mention: Brett Favre, love him or hate, nobody throws more arrant passes......wait for it..... just ask Jen Sterger.

Runningback position

Underrated: Jamaal Charles

I must admit that I do not see too many Chiefs games, but I enjoy watching J. Charles more than sorority girls love listening to Lil Wayne or adding unnecessary letters on the end of words because it’s cuteeeeee. The yards per carry speak for itself. In three seasons, Charles is averaging an NFL best 5.8 YPC. He has breakaway speed with the smarts to always pick the correct gap to hit. Todd Halley and the Chiefs coaching staff have limited his carries to this point of his career, but he is ready to explode in the second half of the 2010 season and it will lead into next year as well.

Honorable Mention: Thomas Jones, welcome to the Chiefs show here at the underrated running back show, but I bet you cannot name too many running backs that have gained over 1000 yards each of the last five seasons. Thomas Jones is one.

Overrated: LaDanian Tomlinson

This is more of a career characteristic that I’m giving LT, more than just this season. First of all, I must give credit for Tomlinson, because as most people, I thought he was absolutely done heading into 2010. Credit him for his career resurgence and credit him for battling hard with some horrific Charger squads at the beginning of his career. With that being said, LT developed a reputation for disappearing in big moments, specifically the playoffs. His career 3.41 yards per carry in 7 games is pathetic. January 14^th, 2008 sticks out more than any other game, when LT hurt his leg and sat on the bench for the remainder of the blood battle with the Indianapolis Colts. This is the same game where Phillip Rivers nearly broke his leg in two and battled it out. Rivers also played the following week against the Patriots while LT spent most the game on the bench, by himself. Regular season accomplishments mean absolutely nothing if you disappear faster than Houdini in the playoffs.

Honorable Mention: Ray Rice, who is a good all-around back and may develop into a great one, but Marshall Faulk comparisons are ludicrous.

Wide Receiver

Underrated: DeSean Action Jackson

This one is definitely going to need some explanation. When debating top 5 or even top 10 wide receivers in the league, Jackson is rarely mentioned. Why not? He is one of the most unique wideouts in the game today. A deep threat that consistently has a significant impact on the game. At 23 years old, he already has amassed 22 total touchdowns, over 2,600 receiving yards while averaging a ridiculous 17.6 yards per catch. Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy both have Jackson to thank for their impressive 2010 season statistics, because nobody stretches the field, in today’s game, the way that DeSean does.

Honorable Mention: Hakeem Nicks ‘elodeon’ will be what all the kids are talking about in a year or two.

Overrated: Marques Colston

This one is difficult, as Colston has certainly worked hard from being nearly Mr. Irrelevant to a 1,000 yard receiver in the NFL. The Saints offense, similar to the Colts can plug in wideouts and Drew Brees’ numbers will not diminish. Colston is relatively slow for NFL standards, but does make up for it with incredible hands. He is replaceable in an incredible Saints’ system.

Honorable Mention: Chad Ocho my Johnson. Also has great hands, but has given Carson Palmer more headaches than a Kimo von Oelhoffen trading card.    

Defensive Line

Underrated: Cullen Jenkins

The curse of being an end in a 3-4 defense. You simply do not the credit that you deserve. Jenkins has been a solid staple in the Packers defense since he was drafted in 2004. He also is very capable of getting to the QB himself and not just plugging holes for his linebackers, 26 career sacks is not too shabby.

Honorable Mention: Justin Smith. Only if Patrick Willis was playing like, well… Patrick Willis this season, the 49ers might not be struggling the way they are. Smith is a power defensive lineman who makes gigantic plays in the pass rush game and the opposing team’s rushing attack.

Overrated: Dwight Freeney

This is a no brainer. The most overrated Colt since Marvin Harrison decided to be a gangster in Philadelphia again. Don’t get me wrong, he is one of the best in the game at sacking the quarterback and his spin move is as deadly as Peyton Manning’s forehead. The only problem is with Dwight is that he puts himself out of position way too much. He constantly runs up field attempting to set up the guard with his spin move, but it often opens a GIGANTIC hole for the opposing teams running attack. He is a big reason why the Colts have struggled against the run for the past few seasons. I also find it startling that such a defensive force only has 3 career forced fumbles. Please do not mention Dwight as one of the best defensive linemen in the game, because it is untrue. If you want factual proof, watch Julius Peppers at work and compare his dominance to Freeney, there is absolutely no comparison.

Honorable Mention: Mario Williams, above average, but not dominate like a number 1 overall draft choice needs to be. Texans will live with 11 sacks a season, but expected top 3 numbers.

Linebackers

Underrated: Jon Beason

He is not flashy or sexy, but he gets the job done. At 25 years old, he is one of the best and consistent players on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers middle linebacker averages 140 tackles a season and with the departure of Peppers, he is most definitely the heart and soul of the struggling Panthers franchise. As he enters his prime, he reminds many of another “U” middle linebacker who has a Super Bowl MVP on his resume and a Canton induction in his future.

Honorable Mention: Barrett Ruud. Talk about huge shoes to feel in Tampa Bay after the eventual retirement of Derrick Brooks, but Ruud produces on a weekly basis.

Overrated: Joey Porter

Similar to Tomlinson, this is also more of a career distinction. Porter has always been a perfect example of glancing at a box score and thinking he had a good game. Joey made a career (and many millions) of making one big play a game (usually a sack) and having people think he played well. He was never good against the run and obviously could not be used in coverage. 2 tackles and 1 sack during a game do not equal all pro status. He also is probably the biggest reason (player wise) why the Steelers missed the playoffs during the 2006 season. Inexcusable personal foul penalties, disappearing in the second half and unnecessary media attention are just a few reasons why Porter was anything but productive. I will close with this, in 2005 (Steelers Super Bowl season) and 2008 (his 2^nd season with the Dolphins) Joey Porter played an all-around game and was one of the best linebackers in the game during those seasons.

Honorable Mention: Brian Urlacher, who has splash play syndrome as well and has been surrounded by an excellent defensive cast most of his career.

Secondary

Underrated: Oshiomogho Atogwe

No I didn’t fall asleep on my keyboard, that is his name and I suggest you take 15 minutes to learn how to pronounce it, because he is one of the best safeties in the game today. The St. Louis Rams defense has been horrific in the last few seasons, but Atogwe has been unswerving with a sense of swag for six seasons now. A sure tackler who has the capability of making a big interception, also a player who has forced 15 fumbles in his career. He definitely should be a household name….but then again, Bob Sanders is a lot easier to pronounce.

Honorable Mention: Tyvon Branch of the Raiders, who leads a talented Raiders secondary from his safety position and quickly is entering his prime.

Overrated: Michael Griffin
The Tennessee Titans former 1^st round pick has yet to expand into that elite safety role. He will get you 70 tackles a season with a lot of devastating hits, but he struggles in coverage. Certainly benefits from Chris Hope who does the dirty work in the secondary.

Honorable Mention: DeAngelo Hall, though he is the best receiver Jay Cutler has ever had in the NFL.

7 (One for the Ring Finger?) reasons the Steelers won’t represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

By Mike Nicastro: Dedicated Steelers Supporter and Enthusiast

7. William Gay – The secondary as a whole was a concern last year for this team, and has been horrific against top notch quarterbacks so far to date on this campaign (Tom Brady, Drew Brees). But let me be more specific. Will somebody please explain to me why William Gay is still a cornerback in the National Football League? Gay was burnt not once, not twice, but three times vs. the Patriots Sunday night, adversely by a rookie tight end, resulting in 3 touchdowns. If he cannot be replaced because whoever is behind him is not as worthy, then tells you a lot about the troubles and current quandary the Steelers have regarding the depth and play of their defensive backs.  Here’s to an attempt at bringing NFL Network Rod Woodson out of retirement, or Ricardo Colclough if we’re simply discussing an upgrade. 

6. The every 3 years law – In the recent decade the Pittsburgh Steelers won the super bowl in 2006 (defeating the Seattle Seahawks capping an improbable run) and in 2009(overcoming the resolute Arizona Cardinals, thanks to a Santonio Holmes toe tap).  This in no way shape or form is relevant to this Steelers team, or this Steelers season, but amusingly in my book, it is appropriate.  Check your facts. Check your calendar. It’s 2011.

5.  Raw – It may be somewhat delusional of me to refer to this offense as inexperienced, but I choose to use it in a different context. Inexperienced in the roles they are being asked to assume, is the stance I opt to take.  Glance at Rashard Mendenhall for example, sure he was effective last season rushing for over 1000 yards and a respectable 4.6 yards per carry. But remember Willie Parker was still in the mix, and Mendenhall ran like a prize fighter trying to land a knockout blow, quite frankly because he had to prove to his coaches, teammates, and fans that he was not injury prone, and could eventually live up to his first round pedigree. Well now the burden and the load is exclusively on his shoulders. Opponent’s game plan solely for Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield.  You’re mistaken if you think i'm questioning his motivation, but what you have to understand that he is still growing into his role as the primary option out of the backfield for this team, and he's not going to be as consistent as most of us terrible towel wavers would like at this stage in the game. Call me crazy, but maybe the Steelers do miss Fast Willie Parker. Or maybe the Steelers need to take a memo from the rest of the league, and find another back to join the rotation, or Mendenhall’s career and success may be short-lived.

Another example, Mike Wallace. For all intensive purposes this guy looks like a star in the making. But once again, it is his first year as a starter, and as a primary target of Ben Roethlisberger. In these final 6 games I’m interested to see how he responds to double coverage, as well as the pressure that winning football games down the stretch conveys. 

4.  Antwaan Randle El –  To declare that this man has not lost a step or two from his prime, would be the equivalent of saying that John Stallworth hasn’t lost a step or two from his prime. Or Bob Barker hasn’t lost a step from his prime. Yes, I did just compare Antwaan randle el to a 64 year old John Stallworth, (I know Randle El/Stallworth, Apples/Oranges), and an 85 year old game show host who is on the verge of deceased, but you get my point (and I really couldn’t come up with anything more creative). Randle El has lost ten steps. And I’ll be the first to say I was the ring leader of the bring back Randel El fan club, but recently I’ve burned my t-shirt. He may be an emotional leader off of the field, but on the field he’s nothing more than a motionless cheerleader.  El is a caterpillar out of his breaks, and I will admit is usually sure handed, but dropped a crucial what would have been touchdown reception in the Steelers throbbing at the hands of the patriots. If his name was Joe Schmo, and not Antwaan Randle El, he would be working at the McDonalds down the street, or selling real estate.  And I’ll give you one name. . Antonio Brown. A talented, dynamic, budding receiver’s progression is being blocked by one el yeah. Oh, and Antwaan Randle El through six weeks was still taking on punt return duties, despite his abysmal 2.7 avg per return this season? ? El, no. 

3. Bruce Arians – Arians has recently won the award for “Worst Red Zone play caller in the history of offensive coordinators”. Going back to the Miami game, where the coordinator had his 6’5 250 lb quarterback who you can ill afford to lose due to injury, scramble two times inside the ten yard line. One, a 2^nd and goal in which Ben rolled out to the right, picking up a yard. And two, a quarterback draw on 3^rd and goal, resulting in what would have been a game-ending fumble recovery by the dolphins if not for an NFL rule coming into effect that needs to change. Let’s just take 6’5 Heath Miller, 6’9 Matt Spaeth, and Mr. Reliable Hines Ward, out of the equation completely in a monumental series inside the ten yard line.  And if my recent memory does not deceive me, Arians elected to throw 3 passes in the direction of Antwaan Randle El (see #4) in goal to go scenarios against New England. One of those calls, of course, a fade pattern. Congratulations Bruce on your award, this one for the refrigerator.

2. Injuries – Plain and simple. Year after year the bug seems to plague the Steelers at the most inopportune times, and thus far it’s been no different for the black and gold. The offensive line is suspect to begin with, slow-footed, and just simply not suited for straight up drop back passes. But the injuries obviously can’t help. To date, Max Starks, Chris Kemoueatu and Willie Colon have all missed significant playing time, with two of these skyscrapers most likely out for the season in Starks and Colon. It is almost impossible to win football games, yet a super bowl with an offensive line that can’t protect the quarterback. Ironically, the Steelers possibly were the exception to that rule in 2009 when they made their super bowl run without 2 starters in the trenches. 

Keeping it in the trenches, the backbone and the vertebrae of the Steelers defensive line are also currently injured. Highlighting the injury list, 3 time pro bowl defensive end Aaron Smith is out for the season, and Brett Keisel is day to day with a hamstring injury. An injury list that featured 8 players this week vs. New England, the previous high on the season being 5.  Mike Tomlin was quoted as saying “The standard is the standard. We have to prepare very smart with these guys and even look at potentially alternative modes of preparation to make sure enough of these men get sufficient looks at what is necessary for us to play. I am more concerned about the readiness of the able-bodied guys, the guys who are going to play for us; We have a group of men we believe are capable if prepared. They have to prepare as if they are going to get the opportunity. We will see how some of the injuries sort out in the later part of the week.  Hopefully this holds true for coach, but the word alternative (also known as back up’s, or guys who aren’t good enough to start in the first place) usually isn’t an option or a route you are excited about taking.

And the number 1 reason the Steelers will not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl is . . (Drum roll please)

Tom Brady – In 2006, the 6. Seed Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, and Denver Broncos in the AFC, en route to winning their first super bowl in 30 years.  In 2009 the Steelers defeated the San Diego Chargers, as well as the Baltimore Ravens before capturing the one for the thumb, against the Arizona Cardinals. Where am I going with this and why is this significant? Well in this recent era, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not beaten the New England Patriots in the playoffs. In 2006, Denver providentially beat the Patriots in the Divisional Round, allowing the Steelers to handle the Broncos rather easily in the AFC Championship. In 2009, Tom Brady was injured on New England’s 3^rd play from scrimmage, and their dreams and aspirations went down the drain when they later received the diagnosis, out for the season. The Patriots missed the playoffs that year, and Pittsburgh cruised through the AFC without looking back.  In 2 AFC Championships, 2004 and 2001, New England defeated the Steelers, in Pittsburgh, en route to winning their first and second of what would be three championships in the decade. Pittsburgh has never defeated New England in the postseason, and if anything was proven in last week’s AFC Showdown between the two teams, the road to the super bowl this year goes through Foxboro. And not to mention one Tom Brady, who is now 6-1 lifetime against the 'burgh with a 97.5 quarterback rating.  Is one of two quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 300 yards, 3 times,  in 3 individual performances against the Steelers. Now I know you can only beat the teams that are in front of you, and may the cards lie where they fall, but if the Steelers have a number, Tom Brady stole that number, and now has that number. And if the Steelers want number 7, they’re going to have to first most likely get through number 12.

Honorable Mention – Jeff Reed.