Matt Aaron fills you in on everything you need to know before the NFL postseason begins.
Who said the holidays are over? Bring out the snacks, hang the pigskin where the mistletoe was and dangle the jerseys from the mantle, because it is time to feel festive again! The NFL Playoffs begin this Saturday and it does not get much better than this for professional sports in America. In anticipation for kickoff, I have developed a bounteous amount of information that will get you ready for the postseason. The following information contains 4 playoff guarantees, a number of players to keep an eye on and the official 2010-2011 NFL Playoff predictions, including which team will elevate the coveted Lombardi Trophy.
Part 1: The Guarantees
Like the NFL, these guarantees are extremely quarterback heavy. There are many myths in football, such as defense wins championships and a stout run game is absolutely necessary. Obviously it is important to be solid in these areas, but teams with all sorts of identities have won the Super Bowl in recent years. On defense, the 3-4, Cover 2 and 4-3 schemes have all won it all last decade. Rushing attacks have been ranked near the top, middle and bottom of the league over the same span. The one constant that every team needs is a great quarterback. In fact, 10 of the previous 12 Super Bowl MVPs have been either a quarterback or wide receiver.
QB is the most important position in sports. In, football, there is not even a close second. A team must have an above average signal caller in order to win it all. You can immediately point to Trent Dilfer, but there are exceptions to every rule. There is also something that nearly every QB that played in the Super Bowl in the last 10 years has in common. All except 2 came into their Super Bowl run with prior postseason experience. Tom Brady is the only quarterback to win the Super Bowl in the last decade without previously playing in the playoffs. Let’s be honest here, players like the GQ, Gisele, clutch gene, 3 time SB winning poster boy for the NFL do not come around too often. The other player lost in his Super Bowl and that would be Jake Delhomme. I do not have any rhyme or reason for this exception, other than ESPN’s Chris Berman gave him a slick nickname based off the Banana Boat Song (and the NFC was fairly weak in 2003).
Since 2000, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, Brad Johnson, Rich Gannon, Donavan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, Peyton Manning, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning and Drew Brees have all played in at least one previous postseason game before reaching the championship.
The playoffs are a different beast. Experience cannot be taught and this year will not be any different. There are at least 2 teams, possibly 3, with a quarterback that has never felt the sensation and pressure of a NFL playoff game.
The Chicago Bears with Jay Cutler will not reach the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs with Matt Cassell will not reach the Super Bowl.
The Seattle Seahawks with Charlie Whinehearst will not reach the Super Bowl. (Lets be honest here, the Seahawks with Matt Hasselbeck or even Jesus Christ himself at quarterback will not reach the Super Bowl. By the way, comparisons to the 2008 Arizona Cardinals are absurd.)
GUARANTEE #1: Both quarterbacks represented in the Super Bowl will have prior postseason experience. (My apologies to Bears, Chiefs and possibly Seahawks fans)
To build off the many myths and/or statistics a lot of analysts like to bring up will get us to our next guarantee. What is the most important statistic in football? There is absolutely a correct answer to this question and there is only one answer. It is not time of possession, rushing yards, rushing attempts (a new one that a lot of analysts are gravitating to) or starting field position. With red zone efficiency being the second most important statistic, graze down a game’s box score until you reach the turnover row. It is by far the most important value in the NFL.
Take a look at the turnover margin of the last 6 Super Bowl winners in the playoffs
2004 Patriots: 11 forced compared to 1 giveaway. Margin of +10
2005 Steelers: 7 forced compared to 4 giveaways. Margin of +3
2006 Colts: 13 forced compared to 9 giveaways. Margin of +4
2007 Giants: 7 forced compared to 2 giveaways. Margin of +5
2008 Steelers: 8 forced compared to 2 giveaways. Margin of +6
2009 Saints: 8 forced compared to 1 giveaway. Margin of +7
In the 2010 regular season, here is where the 12 playoff teams rank in TO differential
1. New England Patriots +27
2. Pittsburgh Steelers +14
3. Atlanta Falcons +13
4. Philadelphia Eagles +12
T5. Green Bay Packers +10
T5. Kansas City Chiefs +10
T6. New York Jets +4
T6. Chicago Bears +4
T6. Baltimore Ravens +4
7. Indianapolis Colts -4
8. New Orleans Saints -5
9. Seattle Seahawks -9
This is the reason why the New Orleans Saints will not repeat. They avoided the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, but this is a much different team. With the lack of a threatening run game, Drew Brees was faced with many more 3rd and longs this year. Consequentially, his interceptions skyrocketed. Last year’s defense was opportunistic in every sense of the word, 2nd in the NFL with 39 takeaways. This year, only 23. Turning the ball over will prevent the Saints from marching back to the promise land.
The previous 6 Super Bowl winners averaged a turnover differential of +5.83. During those years, no winner has had a TO disparity less than +3. Moreover, the 12 playoff teams average a turnover differential, over the duration of the 2010 season, of +6.67. To be straightforward, great teams win the turnover battle and that leads to wins. This gets us to the second guarantee.
GUARANTEE #2: The Super Bowl Winner will have at least a turnover differential of +3 for the duration of the postseason.
Who would you rather have at quarterback in the playoffs, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger? Both fit their systems perfectly. Manning is regarded as an all-time great; Roethlisberger is not (yet). The media, message boards, etc. always bring up a Brady/Manning debate, but listen here, do not discredit Roethlisberger and what he has done in the playoffs thus far. He has an 8-2 record while Manning is .500 at 9-9. A myth is that Ben is simply carried by his defense. In reality, the Steelers defense has allowed 21.7 ppg in Roethlisberger’s 10 playoff games. The Colts defense has allowed 21.3 ppg in Manning’s 18 playoff games. 21 points is quite solid (and obviously the same), but not dominant by either team. It certainly proves that the Steelers defense have not carried Roethlisberger while the Colts defense have not waited for manning to carry them. Additionally, Roethlisberger averages 27 ppg on offense compared the Manning’s 23. The two time SB winner wins that battle by 4 points.
Many uninformed fans like to bring up Roethlisberger’s first SB performance at the age of 22. Did he play well? Hell no! But credit him for his performance in the 3 preceding playoff games. Actually, compare Roethlisberger’s 2005 playoff stat line with Manning’s Super Bowl run in 2007. It might surprise you.
Roethlisberger in 2005: 62% for 803 yards with 9 TDs (2 of those rushing) and 3 INTs
Manning in 2007: 63% for 1,034 yards with 4 TDs (1 of those rushing) and 7 INTs.
To be fair, let’s statistically compare both quarterbacks most recent Super Bowl run.
Roethlisberger in 2008 (3 games): 61% for 692 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT
Manning in 2009 (3 games): 68% for 956 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs
Manning played exceptional for the most part, but was playing from behind in his final 2 games. Roethlisberger ended Super Bowl 43 with one of the greatest drives in NFL history. Manning ended Super Bowl 44 with a pick 6.
In the playoffs, Roethlisberger simply looks better than Manning. The one game that is never talked about that sums up Ben’s play was in 2007, wild card matchup against the Jaguars. He threw 3 first half interceptions, enabling Jacksonville to head into halftime with a 21-7 lead. Steelers’ fans were crying for him to be benched. He comes out in the 2nd half and puts together a historic performance and actually gave the Steelers a 29-28 lead late in the 4th. His 2 touchdown passes in the second half and 3 touchdown leading drives in the 4th alone were more than impressive. Unfortunately for him, David Garrard made Tyrone Carter and James Harrison look silly scrambling for a huge gain on 3rd down with minimal time remaining. The Jags eventually defeated the Steelers on a game winning field goal. This was the game that I thought people would realize what this kid is made of. The following year he orchestrates the previously mentioned Super Bowl drive (putting his first SB behind him) and won his 2nd ring. His maturity is finally on the level as his play and that is not a good sign for the other 5 AFC playoff teams.
There is no denying that Manning is great. His AFC Championship performances against the Jets last year and against the Patriots in 2007 are Hall of Fame type stuff. With that being said, he has more struggles than success in the playoffs. He is only 3-3 in Wild Card games and has 9 interceptions in 6 career AFCC or Super Bowl games (also 3-3 in those 6 games). This year, he is playing with a depleted offensive unit and we will be taking his show on the road if he defeats the Jets. He’s had protection problems, idiot kickers and pick sixes in previous postseasons. The Colts have been playing for their playoff lives since they were 6-6 and that might help them heading into the postseason. Even with that, it does not add up to be a successful year for Manning in to the 2010-2011 playoffs. Looking at their previous history and current situations, here is your next guarantee.
GUARANTEE #3: Ben Roethlisberger will outperform Peyton Manning in the 2010-2011 NFL playoffs. Conclusion: With the impact that QBs have on their teams in this era of football, Ben will lead his team further than Peyton will lead his Colts, guaranteed!
The Patriots, Steelers, Falcons and Bears all earned a first round bye. Congratulations to at least one of those teams, because one of them will represent their conference in the Super Bowl. Notice that 3 of the 4 listed are the first 3 in turnover differential.
Last season we witnessed two 1 seeds face off for the first time since 1993. Yes, that was a rarity, but it did not stop an even longer streak. Since the current playoff format was implemented in 1990, a 1 or 2 seed (at least one) has reached the Super Bowl. In recent years we have watched a 3, 5 and 6 seed all win the Lombardi trophy, but they defeated a top seeded team.
When you look at the top seeds in this year’s bracket, it is not difficult to see why they earned their bye, especially with the Pats, Falcons and Steelers. All three teams have exceptional quarterback play, the ability to run the ball, do not turn the ball over and are well coached. Though this is not a inconceivable statement and it is not going to turn heads, it brings us to the next guarantee.
GUARANTEE #4: At least one top 2 seed will be playing in Dallas for a chance to raise the Lombardi trophy. (Double check your prediction sheet, if you filled one out and you do not have one of these four teams in the Super Bowl, you are wrong!)
Bonus Fact: 2 seeds have won the Super Bowl more than any other seed since the 12 team formatted was instituted in 1990.
Part 2: The players to watch
Thus far, I have stressed the importance of the quarterback position, but there will be some difference makers at other positions. In recent years, Tracy Porter, Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and Ty Law have cemented their names in playoff glory. Here are a few names and situations to watch for. The following players are crucial to their team’s success.
5. John Abraham: Before we get to the young kids, lets start with a strong veteran presence. Speaking of young kids, that is exactly what this Falcons team is, especially in terms of overall postseason experience. Most of this team played in its first playoff game last year in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Abraham was not a factor at all in that game and Kurt Warner took advantage. Explosive offenses such as the Eagles, Saints and Packers might bring their talents to the fast track that is the Georgia Dome. Abraham is capable of taking over a series which he late in week 16 against the Saints (obviously was not enough). Defensively, he might have to take over the greater part of the game. His 102.5 career sacks and 13 this year proves that he can do just that.
The Falcons run a 4-3 defense and the dynamic duo of Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham on the right side of that line might be the key to the dirty birds reaching big D in February.
4. LaMarr Woodley: Robert Horry was nicknamed Big Shot Bob for his playoff heroics in the NBA and it might be time to nickname Woodley, ‘Marr the big game star (it could stick). He has played in 4 playoff games… he has 2 sacks in all four games! Yes, 8 career playoff sacks already. This year, his production went down slightly. 50 tackles, 9.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. Not a bad year by any means, but LaMarr was quieter than OJ Simpson in a confession booth in a few big games this year. Against the Saints, Patriots and Jets, Woodley was completely shut down. Could a miraculous return of Aaron Smith all but guarantee more postseason dominance from the outside linebacker? Possibly, but understand this...the combination of Woodley and James Harrison and the pressure they get (or lack there of) is THE most important defensive factor for the Steelers. As great as he is, Troy Polamalu is a distant second.
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Who needs a lawyer when you can have the entire lawfirm? This kid has been absolute money for the Patriots this year. He has 329 career carries (the majority of them this season) and he has zero career fumbles. This season he added 12 touchdowns to go with the 0 fumbles, which is not a bad ratio. He is a bruising back that always falls forward. After an inconsistent start to the season, Green-Ellis has averaged at least 4 yards a carry the last 8 games of the season. Around half way through the season, the Patriots abundant of tight ends started owning the middle of the field. It is no fluke that the middle of the field opened up once G-E found his stride. Tom Brady gets all the recognition, which the soon to be MVP deserves, but a bruising back might be the main reason why Terrific Tommy has not slipped on a Super Bowl ring in six years.
The Baltimore Ravens could possibly be the Pats first playoff matchup, a team that manhandled them last season in the playoffs. This season, the Pats defeated the Ravens in overtime despite B-E only rushing for 20 yards (Woodhead had 63 yards on 11 carries). More importantly, Brady had 5 interceptions combined in those two matchups. With weather prone to be factor and if this turns out to be the 2nd round battle, keep an eye on BenJarvus Green-Ellis. His ability to run on that stout defense early in the first half and his staying power late in the game will determine who wins this possible matchup.
2. LeSean McCoy: Philadelphia Eagles headlines this year have started and finished with Mike Vick. Every once in awhile you’ll get a front page display of Desean Jackson dancing and prancing. Talk about a quiet season for McCoy who simply put up over 1600 yards from scrimmage, over 1,000 on the ground while averaging a hefty 5.2 yards per pop. In the 4 loses in which McCoy played in (sat week 17 with nothing to play for), the former Pitt running back averaged 3.9 yards per carry, a slim 39.2 yards per game and 1 lonely rushing touchdown. He was a factor in the passing game in those loses, catching at least 4 passes in each of those games. They do not need him to be a factor in the passing game though. He needs to carry the rock and establish the run. McCoy will get his screen passes and the Eagles run the screen better than any other team in the league, but he needs to shrink the defensive box to open up room for Action Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.
Bonus for the Bird fans!
2a. Asante Samuel: 7 Interceptions and 4 touchdowns in 12 postseason games. Hello video game stats! Samuel’s buoyancy and risk taking has paid off (and got him paid) in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings run a silky smooth and perfectly timed double move together. The deep route is implanted in the Packers playbook. Will Asante bite? Or will he make another big pick in a big game? Either way, keep an eye on number 22.
1. Reggie Bush: This one is pretty simple. Chris Ivory is on the injured reserve and Pierre Thomas will be limited, if effective at all. Quarterback Drew Brees’ turnover numbers were ridiculously high and the lack of a dependable backfield was one reason why. Bush looked healthy against the Buccaneers in week 17 and he usually performs well in playoff games. The prevalent question still hovers around Bush. No, it’s not whether or not Kim still loves him (she does), but can he carry the ball 20-25 times? His season high in carries is 9
More importantly than carrying the ball 25 times, Bush will have to be a factor in the slot, catching the ball out of the backfield and in the punt return game. Rookie stud Jimmy Graham was hurt in week 17 as well; so can Reggie be Brees’ security blanket? There will be will a lot of shootouts in the NFC playoffs this year and if the Saints want to make a serious run, Bush will have to lead the NFL in total yards.
Bonus for Saints fans!
1a. Somebody on defense! Last year Tracy Porter elevated his team with 2 legendary interceptions on 2 legendary quarterbacks. During the 2009 season, Darren Sharper was ball hawking like he was 25 again. This year, the team has 8 interceptions total with Porter not building off his postseason success and only compiling 1. Jonathan Vilma provides the stability, leadership and grit that every defense needs, but will not provide the splash play. Roman Harper could be that guy. The safety has 3 sacks, 6 FF and an interception this year. He is athletic and will need all that athleticism to counter the fast and strong NFC offenses.
Part 2 Continued: Bonus for everyone!
To be direct, the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs will not make the Super Bowl. They are not experienced enough and do not have the talent compared to the other 10 teams. It is not a formula for success. BUT (and it’s a big but… obviously) anything can happen in the National Football League. If either of these teams somehow upset their way to Dallas, it will be up to a key, skill position star to put together a historic postseason.
Kansas City’s fate falls on the shoulders of Jamaal Charles. The 24 year old back had a blockbuster 6.4 yards per carry this year. He added nearly 500 receiving yards and his explosiveness is MVP material. Fantasy owners of Charles were frustrated at his lack of carries despite his production (still had 1,467 yards). Well Chiefs fans might be pleased that head coach Todd Haley limited his carries to 230. The former Longhorn, who has a career ypc average of 6.0, should be fresh to have 30-35 touches a game.
Baltimore comes to town this Sunday and their defense is still as good as advertised. Up front, Haloti Ngata is the best defensive tackle in the game. His strength will negate the power run game that Thomas Jones employs. As far as Matt Cassel, Ed Reed is intercepting everything. Despite how athletic Dwayne Bowe is, his unpredictability is worrisome as his readiness for the big stage. Mr. Charles’ talents are ready for the big stage.
The Seahawk’s fate also falls on a running back. He is a back that had high expectations entering this season, but did not quite live up to the hype. If Seattle wants to make one of the most improbable runs in sports history, Justin Forsett will have to introduce himself to America. Marshawn Lynch has received the bulk of the carries, but his 3.6 yards per carry will not control the clock enough for the Seahawks to stand a chance. Forsett is a better all around back in terms of running inside and out. He also brings an element of catching the ball out of the backfield. Quarterback questions loom over Pete Carroll’s squad and the defense has given up catastrophic point totals this season, including over 38 four different times. Unless Leon Washington returns 5 kicks during this postseason, Forsett will have to be magnificent.
Part 3: Predictions
WILD CARD ROUND
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: The reason Coach Rex Ryan finds this “personal” is not because Peyton Manning touched his wife’s feet, it is because Ryan’s defenses have not been able to beat Manning in Baltimore or in New York. Mark Sanchez is banged up and will not be 100%. The Jets running game will not be factor. In fact the Colts rush defense allowed 66 yards per game in their final 4 contests. The Colts rush defense has not clicked like this since their Super Bowl run in 2007. Not a high scoring game, but Colts win at home.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs: Ray Rice will get the ball early and often and similar to last year’s wild card game against the Patriots, he can dominant it. Baltimore’s defense will get to Matt Cassel and Ed Reed will be licking his chops in the secondary. Do not ignore the fact that the Chiefs offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss accepted the Florida Gators OC position. Cassel did not look the same last week. There is no question that a QB and his coordinator’s relationship needs to be completely healthy and trusting. That is not the case right now. The Ravens’ experience will triumph in Arrowhead.
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks: Okay, the Seahawks are at home and the 12th man is intense. Alright, they are keeping their starter quiet in order to force the Saints to prepare for both. Let’s see, the Hawks in essence started their playoffs last week and are in playoff mode. And lastly, absolutely none of that will matter in this contest. Drew Brees will be too much for a defense that is the worst in the playoffs and it’s not even close. They’re not playing Sam Bradford this week.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles: What a wild card game this will be and it will be a shootout. Mike Vick’s health will be something to keep an eye on. If he is not 100%, Packers have the advantage. Somebody has to step up on the Green Bay defense and do not forget the ghastly performance they put forward against Kurt Warner last year. Will Clay Matthews get to Vick? It is quite possible and he has to be the one to lead this defense. The X factor is LeSean McCoy and the lack of a running game the Pack will have. The most exhilarating playoff game of the 2010-2011 season might just take place during Wild Card weekend. Eagles win what will be a great game
DIVISONAL ROUND
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The home team might be the healthiest they have been since early in the season. Rashard Mendenhall has looked fresh in recent weeks and Coach Mike Tomlin has limited his carries the last quarter of the season. Manning does not forget the “Protection problems’ his offensive line had in 2005 and the Steelers front 7 is even better in 2010. Indianapolis simply has too many injuries at their skill positions. The backfield has been so slim for the Colts this year that they brought in Edgerrin James’ cousin and Dominic Rhodes (who last I heard was working at Marvin Harrison’s sport’s bar). Pittsburgh at home is an easy pick.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Many media outlets including the mothership have called the Ravens the Pats’ kryptonite. That simply is not true. Yes, Baltimore destroyed the Pats in the playoffs last year, but this year will be different. Nobody is talking about the horrific playoff performances Joe Flacco has put together in his young career. In 5 career playoff games, the 6 foot 6 QB has 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions. That is actually the good news. On top of that, he is only completing 47% of his passes, 132 yards per game and a passer rating of 46.5. Unfortunately for the Ravens this year, Flacco needs to outperform Brady which is as unlikely as you winning the Mega-Million Lottery drawing.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: This is going to be the most intriguing matchup of the playoffs. These are two teams that know each other inside and out. The most recent matchup featured a game that went down the wire and Brees, as he tends to do, drove the ball 80 yards in a blink of an eye. This game will be different. Michael Turner was Dr. Jackal and Mr. Hyde against the Saints in their two games. If he carries the ball 30 times, effectively, such as he did in September, the Falcons will win at home. Similar to the Colts, injuries will finally catch up to the Saints.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears: Mike Vick vs. Julius Peppers, it does not get much better than that. Jay Cutler, a confident (borderline cocky) quarterback, will be humbled at home. The Eagles will be able to force 2-3 turnovers which will be enough to win on the road. Devin Hester and Desean Jackson should combine for 0 punt return yards, because each punt should sail 15 yards out of bounds. The exceptional Mike Vick story will create a new chapter as the Eagles fly to the NFC Championship game.
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots: Tom Brady has not thrown an interception since week 6. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never fumbled in his career. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers be able to force the Pats to make mistakes in Foxboro? It certainly is not implausible to think so with playmakers such as Harrison, Woodley, Timmons and Polamalu headlining the defense. Do not underestimate the physicality of the Pats defense, because they are just as mean and tough as the Steelers. Vince Wilfork (Sports Illustrated’s cover story this week) is an elite defensive force and allows Jared Mayo to eat up opposing team’s backfields. Unlike previous meetings, this game will be close. We all know that Tom Brady is Michael Jordan in terms of playoff performances, but Ben Roethlisberger might be ready to take that claim away from him. Steelers, behind Roethlisberger and his basketful of playmakers defeat the New England Patriots in a high scoring affair, even in blistering cold Foxboro.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Seriously, is this is a fairytale? Mike Vick back in Atlanta for a chance to play for the Lombardi Trophy? This is not wishful thinking, these are the two best teams in the NFC and they will play each other. Vick has finally mastered the QB position and the comparisons to Steve Young are warranted and down right accurate. The Falcons do not have the defensive speed, specifically on the line to contain Mike. Atlanta at home (despite Matt Ryan’s impressive home record) will actually hurt them, because the Eagles running indoors plays right into their team strengths. Eagles win this game relatively easy.
SUPER BOWL
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Somebody call Ed Rendell and have him make sure no wusses are watching the all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. Dick LeBeau will have the difficult task of containing Vick, but he has the talent to work with. Trent Cole will give Ben Roethlisberger headaches, but will he be able to bring the 260 pound QB down? The Eagles have 4 different players who have at least 3 interceptions this year and will give the Steelers offense a lot of different looks. This game is simple. With the dynamics that Vick brings to the table, how healthy will Troy Polamalu be? The freedom he is given will allow him to play in the box and shadow him. The second most important factor will be who has a bigger impact, Desean Jackson or Mike Wallace? Wallace will see more man defense and he will have the opportunities to put SB MVP numbers up. Steelers win in a close matchup and elevate their unprecedented 7th Lombardi Trophy.
I will conclude with this. I anticipate the playoffs starting with great enthusiasm and a lot of confidence in my guarantees and predictions. I hope you enjoyed reading this and the ultimate goal was to make you, the reader, critically think and help you develop your own guarantees and predictions. I emphasize my confidence, but there is no denying that many, if not all of them, could be wrong. If that is the case, well I will keep my head up high, because, well, Peter King still has his job! Until next time, Happy NFL Playoffs!
